Analysts upbeat about privatization program

Novia D. Rulistia, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Of the 44 state firms the government plans to privatize this year, those operating in the commodity and infrastructure sectors are most likely to attract investor interest, analysts say.

Fauzi Ichsan of Standard Chartered Bank said Friday the soaring prices of commodities, in particular in the agriculture sector, would be the key factor in luring investors.

"The commodity prices will keep increasing this year, and if there's a decrease, it won't be too steep," he said.

Among the state firms the government plans to privatize are several plantation firms that produce products such as palm oil and rubber.

Earlier this week, the government announced plans to privatize 44 state companies, including 10 initially planned to be privatized last year. It hopes to raise at least Rp 1.5 trillion from the privatization.

The government said the privatization was aimed at increasing the companies' competitiveness and freeing the government from non-performing assets, while also generating funds for the state coffers.

However, having missed the privatization target three years in a row, the government risks falling short of the target again this year, partly because of adverse global economic conditions.

Fauzi said the government's target was achievable and that the country could weather the negative global sentiment triggered by the fears of a U.S. economic slowdown.

Besides the commodity-based firms, investors will also be interested in companies operating in the development of infrastructure projects, he said.

"The public or investors can take advantage of the government's plan to focus more on developing the country's infrastructure this year," Fauzi said.

Among the most prominent firms involved in the infrastructure sector are construction companies PT Adhi Karya and PT Waskita Karya, as well as steel manufacturer PT Krakatau Steel.

Adhi Karya in particular should be attractive as it is a listed company, which Fauzi said, would be an added value for investors.

"Investors will trust their money in listed companies as they already have met the standards of transparency and generally have good management systems."

Anton Gunawan, Citibank's chief economist, said that while there were specific factors that could determine investor interest, in the end it would come down to the companies' financial condition and their business prospects.

"In the end, that will determine how fast an investor enjoys their return on investment," said Anton.

Sector-wise, Anton said he would bet on investment in the country's banking sector.

"Although there's a fear over the current global economic conditions, our banking sector won't be affected too much as it has now stabilized.

"Besides, the global economic slowdown, if it materializes, is predicted to return to normal later on this year," Anton said.